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Insights into net migrations flows and their impact on property

  • Property
  • July 29, 2015
  • John Polkinghorne
Insights into net migrations flows and their impact on property

Migration is a hot topic at the moment, with international immigration to New Zealand running at record levels, with a net gain of 58,300 people in the last year. This unprecedented immigration is helping to boost the economy, and sectors such as property and retail. But how accurate are the figures, and what do they really mean for our industry?

Looking at the Stats NZ release and most of the media coverage, you could be led to believe that 26,800 people, or 46% of the nationwide total, ended up in Auckland.

The figures for Auckland (or for other regions) are based on what people fill out on their arrival or departure forms. However, there’s a lot of missing data. Around 17% of immigrants don’t fill out which region they’ll be moving to, and 10 percent of emigrants don’t fill out which region they left from. Oddly, these migrants don’t get assigned to any region – they’re just moved into a “not applicable/not stated” category instead.

This means that the true immigration into Auckland (or other regions) is understated. We estimate that Auckland actually received about 34,600 net immigrants in the last year, or 60% of the national total. That’s much higher than the headlines suggest.

These are big numbers, because in a typical year Auckland’s “natural increase” (births minus deaths) is around 15,000. And a more typical level of immigration is 10,000. We’re running at more than three times that, although it’s anyone’s guess how long it will last – previous immigration booms have been short-lived.

In the last year, Auckland’s population probably grew at double its normal rate, and international immigration made up something like 70% of the growth instead of 35%. This has all sorts of effects. Firstly, it’s contributing to skyrocketing house prices. Secondly, it’s a “push” factor which will encourage older Aucklanders – empty nesters, people wanting to retire and so on – to shift to other regions. Young Aucklanders may do the same if they feel disillusioned by the housing market.

But this unprecedented immigration is also helping to boost the economy, and the retail sector. And in the case of international students – who seem to make up a large share of the “immigrants” – it’s helping our export sector. It’s speeding up Auckland’s evolution into a more multicultural city, and the people moving out of the city will help to reinvigorate the regions.

These migration flows will be very lucrative for people in the property sector who are well placed to take advantage of them – for more, take a look at our research publication, Constructive Thinking, from earlier in the year.

 With a Masters of Commerce degree in economics, John Polkinghorne is a property professional with vast experience in New Zealand’s commercial property industries. He provides retail and property consultancy and analysis including location strategies to many New Zealand property owners, developers and city councils.

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Eat my Lunch opens its first physical store

  • News
  • July 23, 2019
  • Courtney Devereux
Eat my Lunch opens its first physical store

The popular buy one give one model of Eat My Lunch has officially opened its first retail store in Auckland’s downtown Britomart. The store maintains its charity initiative, supplying a Kiwi kid lunch with every $14 spent.

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InStyle names All Is For All’s Grace Stratton a ‘Badass Woman’

  • News
  • July 18, 2019
  • The Register team
InStyle names All Is For All’s Grace Stratton a ‘Badass Woman’

Grace Stratton, the 20-year-old founder of specialty ecommerce site All Is For All, has been named one of 50 global Badass Women by US glossy magazine InStyle. The list includes international celebrities like Mindy Kaling and businesspeople like Stitch Fix chief executive Katrina Lake.

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Wellbeing in the workplace: Here's how its affecting your staff, and your bottom line

  • Opinion
  • July 18, 2019
  • Elly Strang
Wellbeing in the workplace: Here's how its affecting your staff, and your bottom line

Idealog editor Elly Strang recently spoke at the Magazine Publishers Association conference about the importance of wellbeing in the workplace, and the key takeaways from Wellness Month. She shares why it shouldn't be thought of as a luxury nice-to-have, like yoga classes, as research is showing it impacts on your bottom line, as well as some tips on how to create change in the workplace.

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Social scoreboard

Zavy and The Register have worked together to create a scoreboard that compares how the top 25 traditional media advertising spenders in New Zealand have performed on social media over the past 30 days, updated in real time.

 
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How HomeAR is incorporating AR into architecture design

  • technology
  • July 18, 2019
  • Courtney Devereux
How HomeAR is incorporating AR into architecture design

Many people struggle to envision plans from simple 2D renders and floor plans, as without a designer's eye, filling in blanks from imagination isn’t the most reliable method when it comes to something as important as building a brand-new home or store. Reactar has launched an augmented reality-based platform, HomeAR, to counteract this, which allows users to see and engage with homes in a virtual way, making the very personal process more reliable.

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Simon West is the new chief executive of Torpedo7

  • Who's Where
  • July 18, 2019
Simon West is the new chief executive of Torpedo7

Simon West, who has 20 years' experience leading companies like Ezibuy, has been appointed the chief executive of The Warehouse Group's outdoor retailer Torpedo7.

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Bay of Plenty D2C Saltysea opens its first store

  • Design
  • July 17, 2019
  • Sarah Dunn
Bay of Plenty D2C Saltysea opens its first store

Stephanie Saxton has been selling cheeky swimsuits and ethical activewear online out of Bay of Plenty's Athenree since 2018. She's now opened Saltysea's first bricks and mortar store, the Salty Collective.

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